Although many folks are feeling like the worst is over, the numbers are not confirming that we are out of the COVID-19 woods quite yet. In CT, we have flattened the curve and are reopening based on the data. Not all states are basing their reopening strategies on science, and it is beginning to reflect in increased cases, hospitalizations, and deaths. As states reopen, we provide more fuel for the virus to thrive. Each of us must understand the risks, and the data to make solid decisions for ourselves and our families as the country reopens. Transmission among family members in the same household is high. When a family member is exposed to the virus in the community then brings it home, it leads to infection due to the sustained contact with the infected family member. The sustained contact is important. Currently experts estimate that it takes exposure to approximately 1000 COVID-19 viral particles for infections to take hold. We know a single cough can release 3000 droplets that travel at 50 miles per hour, a single sneeze can release 30,000 droplets at 200 miles per hour. An infected droplet may contain as many as 200,000,000 (two hundred million) virus particles which can all be dispersed into the environment around them. You can see how we have a recipe for a pandemic. Exposure time factors into the risk, as well. Basically, exposing yourself to viral particles for extended periods of time increases your risk. Public bathrooms, a cough, a sneeze, breathing in the same space as an infected person for an hour or more, speaking face to face with an infected person for 5 to 10 minutes should be considered risky.
While there has been some evolving estimates about asymptomatic spread, it is known that pre-symptomatic people can begin shedding the virus into the environment up to 5 days before symptoms appear. Viral loads build until symptoms appear, meaning that an infected person releases the most virus into the environment just prior to symptoms showing. The data shows that just 20% of infected people are responsible for 99% of the viral load.
Any environment that is enclosed with a high density of people is risky. Super spread environments and events include; nursing homes, ships, meat packing plants, weddings, funerals, birthday parties, and business events. It is important to remember the exposure time is a factor, which is why workplaces, restaurants, choirs, and indoor sporting events can also be problematic. If you are exposed to a low viral load from people speaking, singing, laughing etc., etc. but it is for several hours, the chance of being exposed to a viral load that causes infection increases. For example, when you run into the grocery store for 10 minutes, your exposure risk is less than the grocery store worker who is in the store for 8 hours a day. Social distancing rules can only protect you with brief exposure or outdoor exposure.
For more information about COVID-19 risks and data please visit the links below:
Comments